Unscramble the raw material market of power lithium battery
Material enterprises benefit from the growth of new energy vehicle sales: the development of domestic and overseas new energy vehicles will bring huge demand elasticity to the domestic lithium battery materials. Although the price of lithium battery materials is still in the decline channel, the decline trend of some links is gradually slowing down, and the increase of shipments offset the decline in price. The impact of price stability has led to performance growth. At the same time, with the continuous introduction of domestic policies and the growth of new energy vehicle sales, the overall valuation level of the plate will be pulled up, and we suggest that we continue to participate in the related stocks of new energy vehicles.
As the price of positive material bottoms up, the profitability will continue to increase: in the past few years, the competition of the positive material is very fierce, the gross interest rate is around 10%. With the gradual stability of the industry pattern, the price of the product also tends to stabilize, the growth of the industry increases the growth of the shipments, the cost and the rate of the enterprise are reduced, and the profitability is improved. In addition, the price of nickel cobalt manganate (622 model) is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the increase in gross profit will result in the increase of gross profit.
The price of electrolyte has slowed down and the shipments continued to increase. This year, the price of the raw material of six fluoro phosphate has been stabilized, the declining trend of electrolyte price has slowed, and the average level of the electrolyte has been maintained at the average level of 40 thousand / ton at the beginning of the year (the price difference of different use electrolytes is larger), the price of the electrolyte used in the new energy vehicle power battery is more than that of the electrolyte. High, but in the industry accounted for relatively low, with the growth of car sales, its proportion will also be improved, which is conducive to the average price of electrolyte stability. Shipments are the most important indicators of the electrolyte enterprises. The development of new energy vehicles and the growth of Samsung and LG in China will bring the growth of demand, and the output of the industry will continue to grow.
Membrane industry growth and import substitution double promotion in the short term: the gross margin of the diaphragm industry is around 50%, which is the most profitable link in the lithium industry. In 2013, the growth rate of the diaphragm industry is about 28%, the domestic diaphragm ratio is around 30%. The double promotion of the industry growth and the domestic ratio of the diaphragm in the short term will further strengthen the diaphragm enterprise Profitability is the first to expand into large lithium battery enterprises. But in the long run, the release of huge domestic diaphragm production capacity will aggravate the competition in the industry, which will inevitably cause a decline in the price and gross margin of the diaphragm products.
The price of negative materials has declined slightly, looking forward to the space for structural adjustment: the price of negative materials has fallen by about 3-5% at the beginning of the year, and we expect that the development of new energy vehicles will bring up the increase in the ratio of artificial graphite negative electrode with high price, which will be beneficial to the stability of the price. In terms of shipments, anode materials are in line with the lithium battery industry and are expected to maintain rapid growth.